Renewable energy may reduce energy wars in the future.
Wars in the Middle East almost always bring bad news for global energy markets. When Iran, the United States, and Israel were again involved in military escalation at the end of February, global energy markets immediately reacted. Not only because of the armed conflict, but because the world knows one thing: most of the world’s oil still comes from the same region and that region is heating up.
One of the most sensitive points is the Strait of Hormuz. This narrow sea route carries about 18–19 million barrels of oil every day, nearly one-fifth of the global oil supply. When conflict threatens this route, energy markets do not take long to panic.
Visual Map of Hormuz Strait.
Source: IStock
Within days after tensions increased, global oil prices jumped sharply. Brent crude oil rose more than 8 percent to around 92 US dollars per barrel. Meanwhile West Texas Intermediate (WTI) briefly climbed to 115 dollars per barrel, far above the roughly 70 dollars before the conflict.
This price spike shows something the world has known for a long time: the global energy system is still very fragile. As long as oil and gas remain the backbone of the world’s energy supply, conflicts in energy-producing regions will quickly spread across the global economy, from transportation costs and logistics to the price of everyday goods.
Recently, people in several countries, from the United Kingdom to South Korea, have rushed to buy gasoline because they fear fuel shortages.
A similar situation also happened in Indonesia, where many people crowded gas stations because they were worried that fuel supplies might run low. Lines of vehicles reportedly stretched for nearly one kilometer after the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that Indonesia’s national fuel reserves were only enough for 23 days.
Hundreds of vehicles crowded the gas station area in the city of Medan due to panic buying by residents.
Source: Kompas.com
For countries like Indonesia, this situation is a serious warning. Dependence on fossil fuels means that the domestic economy can easily be dragged into global geopolitical tensions. Because of this, more studies now see the energy transition not only as a climate agenda but also as a strategy to escape repeated energy crises.
So why does this happen?
Why Fossil Fuels Often Trigger Conflict
For decades, many major conflicts in the world have shared one common thread: energy.
When the world began relying on oil to power cars, airplanes, factories, and ships, oil changed from an ordinary commodity into a source of political power. Countries with large oil reserves gained strong economic and political influence. Meanwhile, countries without oil had to depend on imports.
From wars in the Middle East, the gas crisis between Russia and Europe, to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, energy has never been just about electricity at home or fuel at the gas station. Energy is about power, who controls it, who controls the distribution routes, and who depends on it.
History shows how powerful energy can be in global politics. In 1973, oil-producing countries in the Middle East reduced oil supplies to Western countries. The result was immediate: oil prices surged and the global economy was shaken.
Decades later, a similar story repeated when Russia used gas supplies as political pressure against European countries. Energy dependence left many countries with limited choices.
Oil is often called the “lifeblood” of modern geopolitics.
The problem is that fossil energy resources are highly concentrated. Most of the world’s oil reserves are located in the Middle East, while large gas reserves are found in Russia and a few other regions. When energy sources are located in only a few places, those regions naturally become centers of global competition.
It is not only the resources that are limited, the distribution routes are also critical. Oil must travel through long pipelines or giant tanker ships that pass through narrow maritime routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
World oil distribution channels and their volumes.
Source: Statista, 2023
That is why conflicts in energy-producing regions always make global markets nervous. When war or military tensions appear, oil prices usually rise immediately. Not because oil suddenly disappears, but because markets fear that supply could be disrupted.
The same situation can be seen again in the recent tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel.
Renewable Energy Could Change the Logic of Energy Power
Now imagine a world where the global energy system no longer depends on just a few regions.
Imagine if energy could be produced in many places, on rooftops, in wind farms, or from rivers and dams.
This is where renewable energy begins to change how the world thinks about energy.
Unlike oil and gas, which are concentrated in certain regions, renewable energy is spread almost everywhere. The sun shines in nearly every country. Wind blows across coastlines and highlands. Rivers flow through many regions.
This means more countries have the opportunity to produce their own energy.
Because renewable energy is more widely distributed, it does not depend heavily on complex global supply routes that often trigger geopolitical tensions.
Oil must be shipped through tanker routes or pipelines across borders. Gas must flow through long pipeline networks that can become political leverage.
Solar and wind energy do not require these systems.
Solar panels can be installed on rooftops. Wind turbines can be built in many regions. If a country can meet much of its electricity demand from the sun, wind, or water, the pressure to control oil fields or strategic energy routes becomes smaller.
Renewable energy systems are also more decentralized. Fossil fuels often rely on massive oil fields and long distribution networks. Renewable energy can be built in smaller, distributed systems.
A comparative overview of decentralized energy with renewable energy.
Source: Swinburne University of Technology
Solar panels can power homes, factories, and schools. Wind turbines can operate across many regions without waiting for massive infrastructure projects.
The sun is not owned by any single country.
The wind does not flow through geopolitical pipelines.
In other words, renewable energy has the potential to change the global map of energy power.
If global influence used to depend on controlling oil and gas, in the future it may depend more on technology, electricity infrastructure, and the ability to manage clean energy systems.
But War Can Also Slow the Energy Transition
However, the relationship between conflict and renewable energy is not always simple.
In many cases, war can actually slow down the energy transition.
When energy prices rise during conflicts, governments often focus on short-term solutions. Countries release strategic oil reserves, increase oil and gas production, or provide fuel subsidies to control domestic prices.
These policies can calm economic pressure in the short term. But they often keep the world dependent on fossil fuels for longer.
War also creates global economic uncertainty. Investors become more cautious, while renewable energy projects require large investments and long-term policy stability.
When geopolitical tensions rise, many clean energy projects are delayed.
This is also visible in Indonesia, where the share of renewable energy in the national energy mix is still relatively low. To reach the national target of 23 percent renewable energy, Indonesia needs around 10 billion US dollars in investment every year.
Unfortunately, domestic energy policies often still focus on quick solutions. When fuel shortages are feared, discussions often turn to increasing fuel imports or expanding biofuel made from palm oil or sugarcane.
These solutions may look fast, but they do not always solve long-term energy dependence.
In many cases, such policies become a form of greenwashing that also drives deforestation. Instead of strengthening energy resilience, they risk enriching large commodity industries without truly reducing fossil fuel dependence.
Hoping for a Cleaner Future
More countries are beginning to realize that dependence on imported energy makes their economies vulnerable.
Because of this, the idea of energy sovereignty is becoming more important.
Some countries have already shown examples. Japan, for instance, maintains large strategic oil reserves while also installing around 100 gigawatts of solar power capacity. Sweden has electrified a large share of its transportation system.
Europe also provides a clear example. After the gas crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, many European countries accelerated the development of wind and solar power.
The goal is not only to reduce carbon emissions but also to reduce dependence on energy imports from a single country.
Growth of renewable energy in Europe rivals fossil energy production.
Source: Ember, 2024
Globally, renewable energy development is also growing rapidly. According to the Renewables 2025 Global Status Report by IRENA, the world added more than 700 gigawatts of renewable electricity capacity in just one year.
Electricity demand worldwide is also rising, from 2.5 percent growth in 2023 to 4.3 percent in 2024. By 2050, global electricity demand could increase by almost 220 percent, as electricity becomes more widely used in transportation, buildings, and industry.
Global renewable energy growth.
Source: IRENA, 2020
However, many countries still face major challenges in funding and technology gaps. Many developing countries remain users of clean energy technology rather than developers.
In fact, about 120 developing countries have received only around 15 percent of global renewable energy investment over the past two decades.
For more than a century, energy has often been a reason for conflict.
But if energy can be produced almost anywhere, the world may no longer need to fight over it.
The change may be slow, but it has already begun.
The real question is no longer whether renewable energy will change the world.
The question is whether we are ready to manage this transition fairly, or whether the new energy system will once again be controlled by only a few powerful actors.
